The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers face off in a high-stakes first-round series of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. With both teams coming in with contrasting momentum and significant roster questions, this matchup will test depth, coaching, and star power. Below is a breakdown of key factors shaping the series.
Series Schedule – Analysis
The Nuggets will host Games 1, 2, 5, and 7, giving them home-court advantage — historically significant given Denver’s altitude edge and playoff record at Ball Arena (14-4 in past two postseasons). However, their home defense regressed to 22nd this year, making it vulnerable to Clippers’ spacing and shot creation. The first two games are crucial swing points. A split favors L.A.; a sweep puts Denver in control.
Team Overview – Analysis
| Factor | Nuggets | Clippers |
|---|---|---|
| Momentum | Shaky (coach fired, 5-5 finish) | Red-hot (18-3 last 21) |
| Identity | Offense through Jokić + two-man Murray game | Elite D + switch-heavy, isolation-heavy scoring |
| System Strength | Continuity despite coaching change | Versatility and adaptability with Lue |
Denver thrives on chemistry and inside-out flow but could suffer from turbulence post-Malone. L.A. thrives on adaptive lineups, using defensive stops to fuel transition. Net rating gap suggests the Clippers have slightly outperformed across a tougher strength of schedule in recent weeks.
Injury Reports – Analysis
- Jamal Murray: Denver needs his off-the-dribble shot-making. His hamstring may limit his separation ability.
- Kawhi Leonard: Missed 34 games but is back to elite form with high-efficiency isolation play and lockdown defense.
Health could determine whether this series is a chess match — or a demolition.
Key Matchups & X-Factors – Analysis
This series will hinge on individual battles and tactical counters. Star performances, defensive assignments, and role player impact will shape each game’s outcome.
Nikola Jokić vs Ivica Zubac
Zubac is playing the best basketball of his career, but Jokić’s versatility transcends matchups. While L.A. threw varied coverage, Jokic still dominated. However, his 17 assists vs 15 turnovers show L.A. disrupted Denver’s ball movement. Limiting his playmaking is Lue’s best shot.
Jamal Murray vs Kris Dunn
Dunn held Murray to 3 points on 4 shots over 59 partial possessions. He’s top-20 in steals/deflections and could disrupt Denver’s second scoring option early and often.
Kawhi Leonard’s Return
Kawhi elevates L.A.’s offensive rating to 123.6 per 100 possessions and brings a +16.5 net rating with Powell and Harden. Denver will likely use Aaron Gordon, but his calf injury may limit his lateral defense. Expect Leonard to exploit this often.
Coaching Battle – Analysis
| Metric | David Adelman | Tyronn Lue |
|---|---|---|
| Playoff Wins | 0 (interim) | 54 |
| Rotation Creativity | TBD | High |
| Adjustment History | Unproven | Elite (esp. mid-series) |
Lue is elite at adjusting by Game 2-4. Adelman is fresh in the head role and must quickly learn who can fill backup C minutes and how to manage trapping vs Harden and Kawhi. Tactical edge clearly favors L.A.
Bench Depth – Analysis
Clippers win this decisively. Dunn and Jones Jr. lock down defensively, Batum and Simmons add switchability, and Bogdanovic provides spacing and creation. Denver relies on rookies and untested players, with Westbrook as a possible X-factor. Depth may determine Games 3 and 6.
Team Stats – Analysis
Nuggets prefer the mid-post/paint and attempt the fewest 3s in the league. Clippers are more efficient overall with top-10 3PT shooting and rim protection. Denver’s -9.3 net rating without Jokić is the worst among playoff teams. That makes non-Jokić minutes potentially catastrophic.
Predictions – Analysis
This series is evenly matched. Denver relies on Jokic’s dominance and Murray’s health, while the Clippers counter with depth, defense, and Kawhi’s resurgence. Coaching and bench performance will likely decide the outcome.
Nuggets in 6 or 7 if:
- Jokić dominates AND Murray returns to form
- Porter Jr. regains 2023 shooting form
- Bench avoids drop-off
Clippers in 6 or 7 if:
- Kawhi stays healthy
- Harden manages pace and decision-making
- Dunn + Jones Jr. disrupt Murray and Denver’s flow
- Zubac holds ground without fouling
Analytics and odds give L.A. a slight edge, but expect a tightly contested, high-IQ series.
